[In-Depth Analysis] Anatomy of Trump's '28-Point Peace Plan': Will the Ukraine War End in a 'Second 38th Parallel'?

In the winter of 2025, the geopolitical clock of the world is once again ticking rapidly. The concrete outlines of the so-called "Trump's Peace Plan," leaked from diplomatic circles in Geneva and Washington, have finally emerged. This 28-point document, reportedly drafted by former President Donald Trump's team, foreshadows more than just a simple ceasefire proposal; it signals a restructuring of the 21st-century international order.

Many experts diagnose that if this document is implemented, the Ukraine war is highly likely to transition into a state of "Frozen Conflict," similar to the armistice model of the Korean Peninsula. In today's post, we provide an in-depth analysis of the harsh realities contained in this peace plan, the calculations of winners and losers, and the repercussions this will have on the global economy and security.

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1. The Rise of Realism: "Land for Peace"

The core of the revealed '28-Point Peace Plan' is based on thorough Realism. After three years of a grueling war of attrition, the Western world seems to have concluded that the idealistic goal of "Ukraine's complete territorial reclamation" is realistically impossible.

The key provisions of the document include:

• Immediate Ceasefire at Current Lines: It effectively recognizes the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine (about 20% of the total territory) currently occupied by Russian forces as areas under Russia's effective control.
• Establishment of a 1,200km Demilitarized Zone (DMZ): The concept involves both armies retreating a certain distance from their current positions to create a buffer zone, where a European-led peacekeeping force would be stationed.
• Deferment of NATO Accession: A condition is included to postpone Ukraine's accession to NATO, which it has strongly demanded, for at least 20 years. This is a carrot to alleviate the "security concerns" that Russia cited as a justification for the war.

This forces a painful concession upon Ukraine. While the Zelensky administration strongly objects, stating "There is no trading of territory," Trump's side is applying pressure with a powerful card: "If you do not agree to negotiate, all weapon support will be stopped." Conversely, if Putin refuses, they are employing a double-pressure tactic of "pouring unprecedented cutting-edge weapons into Ukraine to crush Russia."

2. Putin's Calculus: Sanctions Relief and the Resurrection of Energy Hegemony?

While the Kremlin in Russia outwardly maintains a cautious attitude, intelligence analysts suggest they are internally preparing to pop champagne. This is because the peace plan satisfies a significant portion of the strategic goals Putin sought to achieve through the war.

First, it secures the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbas region. Even if not recognized under international law, Russia can solidify these areas as its territory through effective control.

Second, it involves the easing of Western economic sanctions. The peace plan reportedly includes discussions on lifting restrictions on Russian energy exports and returning to the international payment network (SWIFT). This would be a decisive turning point to replenish Russia's treasury, depleted by war costs, and to consolidate Putin's shaky domestic support base.

News that energy companies in Germany and France are already exploring the possibility of reopening Russian gas pipelines is evidence that "war fatigue" has reached its peak even within Europe.

3. Europe's Nightmare and the Fracture of NATO

The biggest aftermath this peace plan will bring is the "fragmentation of NATO" and "Europe standing alone in security." Trump's proposal is effectively an isolationist declaration that "the United States will no longer spend unlimited money for Europe's security."

Poland and the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) are terrified. They fear they could be the next targets after Ukraine. On the other hand, pro-Russian countries like Hungary and Slovakia are welcoming the mood. Within the European Union (EU), signs of intensifying conflict between the East and West over security are appearing.

Europe now stands at a crossroads. Will they spend massive defense budgets to build an independent defense network to fill the void left by the US, or will they seek a new model of coexistence with Russia? Either way, it is expected to be a significant burden on the European economy.

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4. Conclusion: An Imperfect Peace and the Start of a New Cold War

If Trump's '28-Point Peace Plan' is finally concluded, the immediate gunfire will stop. Global stock markets may welcome the easing of war risks with a short-term rally. Grain and oil prices would stabilize, lowering global inflationary pressures.

However, this is closer to a "massive armistice" than a true end to the war. A 'New Cold War' system, where the West and Russia aim their guns at each other across a military demarcation line like on the Korean Peninsula, will become entrenched in the heart of Europe.

Furthermore, this negotiation process leaves a bad precedent that "changing the status quo by force" is tolerated. This could give the wrong signal to parties in conflicts such as China targeting Taiwan or in the Middle East. The peace in Ukraine is not just a matter for one country; it will be a signal flare announcing that the 21st-century international order has completely shifted from being "Value-centered" to "Interest-centered."

🌍 View from Versus Lab
We will continue to track the progress of this historic negotiation. Is Trump's gamble worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize, or is it a misjudgment calling for a greater war, like the 'Munich Agreement' just before World War II? What are your thoughts?